Digital assets
How infrastructure, adoption, liquidity, and rules shape this evolving market.
RESEARCH
Insights for a more open financial future.
Original perspectives on the information, incentives, and market structures shaping digital assets, prediction markets, and global capital.
Explore research themesRESEARCH THEMES
Four perspectives. A more complete picture.
Prediction markets
How event contracts reveal expectations and where those signals can mislead.
Market structure
How participation, incentives, and design influence price formation.
Macro & global
How policy, capital flows, and events connect markets across borders.
FEATURED PERSPECTIVES
Ideas to read in context.
Why prediction markets deserve a closer look.
A probability is useful only when we understand the question, the participants, and the market behind it.
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Digital assets beyond the price chart.
Network design, adoption, and market plumbing matter as much as short-term movement.
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Global context changes the question.
Policy, liquidity, and events can alter the backdrop around every market view.
Read perspective ↓Why prediction markets deserve a closer look.
Prediction markets can concentrate dispersed views into a single price, but that price is not a complete answer. Contract wording, liquidity, incentives, and resolution rules all affect what a probability means. A careful reader asks what information entered the market, who could act on it, and what alternative interpretation remains plausible.
Digital assets beyond the price chart.
A token's price can move faster than the underlying network changes. To understand the longer arc, we look at who uses the system, how value moves through it, what frictions remain, and how rules shape participation. Market structure provides the bridge between technical progress and observable demand.
Global context changes the question.
A thesis built in one environment may behave differently when rates, capital flows, or policy shift. Global context helps distinguish a market-specific signal from a broader change in risk appetite. The key is not to predict every event; it is to know which assumptions depend on the environment staying the same.
QUESTIONS BEHIND THE DATA
Start with what the chart cannot tell you.
What is being priced?
Clarify the contract, asset, or outcome represented. Definitions shape interpretation. A chart cannot resolve ambiguity in its own terms.
Who can participate?
Access and incentives affect which views enter the market. Participation may be uneven, and price can reflect those constraints.
What could change the view?
Identify the assumptions beneath the current reading. New evidence, policy, liquidity, or resolution rules can change what a signal means.
RESEARCH NOTEBOOK
More questions worth following.
Liquidity as context
Market depth changes how much confidence to place in a move. A price formed in thin conditions may carry a different signal than one supported by broad participation.
Narratives and incentives
The same evidence can support competing stories. Understanding who benefits from each interpretation helps separate explanation from persuasion.
Cross-market signals
Related markets may respond at different speeds. Comparing them can reveal shared drivers, divergent expectations, or a link still missing from the analysis.
MARKETS
Explore the markets behind the research.
See the lenses that help frame each question.
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